Disrupted montane forest recovery hinders biodiversity conservation in the tropical Andes

Aim Andean montane forests are biodiversity hotspots and large carbon stores they provide numerous ecosystem services. Following land abandonment after centuries of forest clearing for agriculture in the Andes, there is an opportunity recovery. Field-based studies show that do not always recover. However, large-scale long-term knowledge recovery dynamics remains scarce. This paper analyses tropical trajectories over a 15-year time frame at landscape scale to inform restoration planning. Methods We first detect “potential recovery” as areas have experienced transition between 2000 2005. Then, we use Landsat series analysis normalized difference water index (NDWI) classify four “realized (“ongoing”, “arrested”, “disrupted” “no recovery”) based on sequential pattern 5-yearly Z-score anomalies 2005–2020. compare these results against change tree cover validate other datasets. Results Across detected potential area 274 km2 period. Despite increases cover, most Andes remained early successional states (10–25% cover), NDWI levelled out 5–10 years. Of all areas, 22% showed “ongoing recovery”, 61% either or “arrested 17% recovery”. Our method captured Peruvian arrested succession context landscape-scale tree-planting efforts Ecuador. Main conclusions Forest across mostly disrupted, unsuccessful, with consequences provision Low-recovery identified this study might be good candidates active interventions UN Decade Restoration. Future could determine strategies priorities suggest management local planning key regions hotspot.